{
  "version": 2,
  "reviewed_at": "2026-09-24",
  "scope_start": "1990-01-01",
  "method": "Curated historical context, not an exhaustive chronology or an estimated market regime. Boundaries describe the named phase, not the duration of its market impact. Ongoing episodes stop visually at the market-data cutoff. No dates were selected from the plotted returns or correlations.",
  "sources": {
    "arab": {
      "title": "CFR: Arab Spring at ten years",
      "url": "https://www.cfr.org/articles/arab-spring-ten-years-whats-legacy-uprisings"
    },
    "arab_start": {
      "title": "CFR: essential historical events",
      "url": "https://www.cfr.org/education/learn/timelines/essential-events-1945"
    },
    "syria_start": {
      "title": "UN: Syria historical overview",
      "url": "https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/4025047/files/1386775EN.pdf"
    },
    "syria_end": {
      "title": "UN: anniversary of the Assad government's fall",
      "url": "https://iimp.un.org/en/node/582"
    },
    "nato": {
      "title": "NATO: relations with Ukraine",
      "url": "https://nato.int/en/what-we-do/partnerships-and-cooperation/relations-with-ukraine"
    },
    "minsk": {
      "title": "OSCE: Minsk implementation agreement, 12 February 2015",
      "url": "https://www.osce.org/cio/140156"
    },
    "china": {
      "title": "USITC: 2018 tariff actions",
      "url": "https://www.usitc.gov/research_and_analysis/trade_shifts_2018/special_topic.htm"
    },
    "current": {
      "title": "AP: UN General Assembly reporting, September 2026",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/692e1e171a791be0c9b9c1f56718a0d0"
    },
    "who_start": {
      "title": "WHO: COVID-19 response timeline",
      "url": "https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/interactive-timeline/"
    },
    "who_end": {
      "title": "WHO: end of COVID international emergency, 5 May 2023",
      "url": "https://www.who.int/malta/news/item/05-05-2023-statement-on-the-fifteenth-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-pandemic"
    },
    "ukraine_start": {
      "title": "NATO: full-scale invasion anniversary, 24 February 2024",
      "url": "https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_223087.htm"
    },
    "ukraine_current": {
      "title": "Le Monde: continuing Ukraine war, 10 September 2026",
      "url": "https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2026/09/10/ukraine-braces-for-another-harsh-winter-as-air-defense-falls-short_6757391_4.html"
    },
    "gaza_start": {
      "title": "UN: October 2023 General Assembly coverage",
      "url": "https://press.un.org/en/2023/ga12548.doc.htm"
    },
    "gaza_end": {
      "title": "UN: report documenting the 10 October 2025 ceasefire",
      "url": "https://documents.un.org/access.nsf/get?DS=S%2F2025%2F807&Lang=E&Open="
    },
    "iran25": {
      "title": "AP: Iran nuclear tensions timeline, including June 2025 war",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/1c1e810598dd3323bcb5f0f771362471"
    },
    "iran26": {
      "title": "AP: timeline of the 2026 Iran conflict and ceasefires",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-timeline-trump-hormuz-war-ceasefire-04da58cbae991183f8b52ef5bf615963"
    },
    "fed_timeline": {
      "title": "Federal Reserve: balance-sheet policy timeline",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/timeline-balance-sheet-policies.htm"
    },
    "fed15": {
      "title": "FOMC statement, 16 December 2015",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20151216a.htm"
    },
    "fed18": {
      "title": "FOMC statement, 19 December 2018",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20181219a.htm"
    },
    "fed19": {
      "title": "FOMC statement, 31 July 2019",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20190731a.htm"
    },
    "fed20": {
      "title": "FOMC emergency statement, 15 March 2020",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200315a.htm"
    },
    "fed22": {
      "title": "FOMC statement, 16 March 2022",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220316a.htm"
    },
    "fed23": {
      "title": "FOMC statement, 26 July 2023",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230726a.htm"
    },
    "qt22": {
      "title": "Federal Reserve: runoff begins 1 June 2022",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220504b.htm"
    },
    "qt25": {
      "title": "FOMC: runoff ends 1 December 2025",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20251029a.htm"
    },
    "fed24a": {
      "title": "FOMC statement, 18 September 2024",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240918a.htm"
    },
    "fed24b": {
      "title": "FOMC statement, 18 December 2024",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20241218a.htm"
    },
    "debt11a": {
      "title": "Treasury: debt limit reached, 16 May 2011",
      "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/as-us-reaches-debt-limit-geithner-implements-additional-extraordinary-measures-to-allow-continued-funding-of-government-obligations"
    },
    "debt11b": {
      "title": "White House archive: Budget Control Act signed, 2 August 2011",
      "url": "https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2011/08/02/statement-press-secretary"
    },
    "shutdown19": {
      "title": "GAO: 2018–19 government shutdown",
      "url": "https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-20-377"
    },
    "nber": {
      "title": "NBER: February–April 2020 recession dating",
      "url": "https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021"
    },
    "cpi21": {
      "title": "BLS: April 2021 CPI release",
      "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_05122021.htm"
    },
    "cpi22": {
      "title": "BLS: June 2022 CPI release",
      "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07132022.htm"
    },
    "banks": {
      "title": "FDIC: 2023 bank failure dates",
      "url": "https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/in-brief/2023"
    },
    "debt23": {
      "title": "Congressional Research Service: debt-limit suspensions",
      "url": "https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN11829/IN11829.7.pdf"
    },
    "tariffs25": {
      "title": "USTR: dated 2025 tariff actions and Geneva agreement",
      "url": "https://www.ustr.gov/trade-topics/presidential-tariff-actions"
    },
    "shutdown25a": {
      "title": "AP: government shutdown begins, 1 October 2025",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/7735eb1b908f8bbb93fae48f5f0332c7"
    },
    "shutdown25b": {
      "title": "AP: shutdown ends, 12 November 2025",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/8cae829d4472a165846d1aae3e82f310"
    },
    "euro": {
      "title": "ECB: Securities Markets Programme and OMT decision",
      "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/app/html/index.cs.html"
    },
    "libya": {
      "title": "NATO: Libya operation timeline, March–October 2011",
      "url": "https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/operations-and-missions/nato-and-libya-february-october-2011"
    },
    "fukushima": {
      "title": "IAEA: Fukushima Daiichi emergency milestones, pages 115–116",
      "url": "https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/PUB1796_web.pdf"
    },
    "brexit": {
      "title": "European Council: referendum-to-withdrawal timeline",
      "url": "https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/the-eu-uk-withdrawal-agreement/timeline-eu-uk-withdrawal-agreement/"
    },
    "oil_start": {
      "title": "EIA: March 2020 oil-market developments",
      "url": "https://www.eia.gov/about/new/index.php?r=2370"
    },
    "oil_end": {
      "title": "OPEC: 12 April 2020 production agreement",
      "url": "https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/310-12-apr-2020.html"
    },
    "redsea_start": {
      "title": "IMO: Red Sea incident chronology",
      "url": "https://wwwcdn.imo.org/localresources/en/MediaCentre/Documents/List%20of%20incidents_%20Red%20Sea.pdf"
    },
    "redsea_current": {
      "title": "AP: renewed Red Sea shipping blockade, September 2026",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/93dfe17125c63897b232f6461d81d85c"
    },
    "repo19": {
      "title": "Federal Reserve: September 2019 money-market disruption",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/what-Happened-in-Money-Markets-in-September-2019-20200227.htm"
    },
    "shutdown13": {
      "title": "OMB: October 2013 shutdown and economic effects",
      "url": "https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/omb/reports/impacts-and-costs-of-october-2013-federal-government-shutdown-report.pdf"
    },
    "geo90_gulf": {
      "title": "US Office of the Historian: The Gulf War, 1991",
      "url": "https://history.state.gov/milestones/1989-1992/gulf-war"
    },
    "geo91_coup": {
      "title": "Library of Congress: Internal Workings of the Soviet Union",
      "url": "https://www.loc.gov/exhibits/archives/intn"
    },
    "geo91_soviet": {
      "title": "US Office of the Historian: The Collapse of the Soviet Union",
      "url": "https://history.state.gov/milestones/1989-1992/collapse-soviet-union"
    },
    "geo92_bosnia": {
      "title": "UN ICTY archive: The Conflicts",
      "url": "https://icty-archive.irmct.org/en/about/what-former-yugoslavia/conflicts"
    },
    "geo95_dayton": {
      "title": "Office of the High Representative: Dayton Peace Agreement",
      "url": "https://www.ohr.int/dayton-peace-agreement/?print=print"
    },
    "geo94_mexico": {
      "title": "IMF: Turbulence in Emerging Markets, evolution of the Mexican peso crisis",
      "url": "https://www.elibrary.imf.org/display/book/9781451942156/ch005.xml"
    },
    "geo95_mexico_imf": {
      "title": "IMF: Governance in a Crisis, Mexico 1994-95",
      "url": "https://www.elibrary.imf.org/display/book/9781589061309/ch006.xml"
    },
    "geo97_asia": {
      "title": "Federal Reserve History: Asian Financial Crisis, 1997-1998",
      "url": "https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/asian-financial-crisis"
    },
    "geo99_kosovo": {
      "title": "NATO: Kosovo Air Campaign, March-June 1999",
      "url": "https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/operations-and-missions/kosovo-air-campaign-march-june-1999"
    },
    "geo01_afghan_start": {
      "title": "NATO: Afghanistan timeline, including September and October 2001",
      "url": "https://nato.int/en/what-we-do/operations-and-missions/nato-and-afghanistan"
    },
    "geo01_afghan_interim": {
      "title": "UN Security Council: establishment of the Afghan interim authority on 22 December 2001",
      "url": "https://press.un.org/en/2002/sc7345.doc.htm"
    },
    "geo02_sars_start": {
      "title": "WHO: SARS chronology, first known case on 16 November 2002",
      "url": "https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2003_07_04-en"
    },
    "geo03_sars_end": {
      "title": "WHO: SARS transmission interrupted in the last outbreak area, 5 July 2003",
      "url": "https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2003_07_05-en"
    },
    "geo03_iraq": {
      "title": "US Army Central: timeline of the Iraq invasion and 2011 withdrawal",
      "url": "https://www.usarcent.army.mil/About/History/Timeline/"
    },
    "geo06_lebanon": {
      "title": "UN Peacekeeping: A reflection of the 2006 war",
      "url": "https://peacekeeping.un.org/en/news/a-reflection-of-2006-war"
    },
    "geo08_georgia": {
      "title": "European External Action Service: 2008 Russia-Georgia war anniversary and 12 August agreement",
      "url": "https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/georgia-statement-spokesperson-17th-anniversary-2008-war-between-russia-and-georgia_en"
    },
    "geo09_h1n1": {
      "title": "WHO: H1N1 IHR Emergency Committee and emergency declaration dates",
      "url": "https://www.who.int/groups/h1n1-ihr-emergency-committee"
    },
    "fed_omo_1990_2002": {
      "title": "Federal Reserve: historical federal funds target changes, 1990–2002",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket_archive.htm"
    },
    "fed94_announcement": {
      "title": "FOMC: first tightening announcement, 4 February 1994",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/19940204default.htm"
    },
    "fed98_statements": {
      "title": "Federal Reserve: 1998 monetary policy releases",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/1998monetary.htm"
    },
    "fed01_cut": {
      "title": "FOMC: rate cut announcement, 3 January 2001",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/general/2001/20010103/default.htm"
    },
    "fed03_cut": {
      "title": "FOMC: rate cut to 1%, 25 June 2003",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2003/20030625/default.htm"
    },
    "fed04_hike": {
      "title": "FOMC: rate hike announcement, 30 June 2004",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2004/20040630/default.htm"
    },
    "fed06_hike": {
      "title": "FOMC: rate hike to 5.25%, 29 June 2006",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20060629a.htm"
    },
    "fed07_cut": {
      "title": "FOMC: rate cut announcement, 18 September 2007",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20070918a.htm"
    },
    "fed08_zero": {
      "title": "FOMC: 0–0.25% target range, 16 December 2008",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20081216b.htm"
    },
    "fed_qe1_timeline": {
      "title": "Federal Reserve: balance-sheet policy announcement timeline",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/timeline-balance-sheet-policies.htm"
    },
    "fed_qe1_completion": {
      "title": "New York Fed: QE1 purchases, December 2008 through March 2010",
      "url": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2010/sac101004"
    },
    "nber_historical_cycles": {
      "title": "NBER: US business cycle expansions and contractions",
      "url": "https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions"
    },
    "nber_month_convention": {
      "title": "NBER: business cycle dating conventions",
      "url": "https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating"
    },
    "shutdown95_archive": {
      "title": "Clinton Presidential Library: November 1995 and December 1995–January 1996 shutdown dates",
      "url": "https://www.clintonlibrary.gov/research/archives/finding-aids/2011-0426-f-government-shutdown"
    },
    "ltcm98_history": {
      "title": "Federal Reserve History: LTCM's August losses and September 1998 recapitalization",
      "url": "https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/ltcm-near-failure"
    },
    "ltcm98_testimony": {
      "title": "Greenspan testimony: private-sector LTCM refinancing, 1 October 1998",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/19981001.htm"
    },
    "bear08_support": {
      "title": "Federal Reserve: Bear Stearns financing approval, 14 March 2008",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20080314a.htm"
    },
    "scap09_results": {
      "title": "Federal Reserve, OCC and FDIC: bank stress-test results, 7 May 2009",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20090507a.htm"
    }
  },
  "events": [
    {
      "id": "recession90",
      "category": "us",
      "label": "1990–91 US recession",
      "start": "1990-07-01",
      "end": "1991-03-31",
      "precision": "monthly NBER peak-to-trough dating",
      "note": "July 1990 peak to March 1991 trough, expanded to month edges for display. NBER counts the peak month as the last expansion month; this retrospective band includes that peak month and is not a daily or real-time signal.",
      "sources": [
        "nber_historical_cycles",
        "nber_month_convention"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "cuts90",
      "category": "fed",
      "label": "1990–92 rate-cut phase",
      "start": "1990-07-13",
      "end": "1992-09-04",
      "precision": "selected target-change dates",
      "note": "Selected 1990–92 easing segment, from the first target reduction listed for 1990 to the last in 1992. This is not the full earlier easing cycle. Dates are historical target changes, not modern-style FOMC announcements.",
      "sources": [
        "fed_omo_1990_2002"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "gulf90",
      "category": "geo",
      "label": "Kuwait invasion / Gulf War",
      "start": "1990-08-02",
      "end": "1991-02-28",
      "precision": "invasion to coalition ceasefire phase",
      "note": "Iraq's invasion of Kuwait through the end of the coalition air and ground war. Sanctions, regional tensions and later fighting continued beyond this phase.",
      "sources": [
        "geo90_gulf"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "soviet91",
      "category": "geo",
      "label": "Soviet coup → Gorbachev resignation",
      "start": "1991-08-19",
      "end": "1991-12-25",
      "precision": "selected political milestones",
      "note": "Failed August coup through Gorbachev's resignation as Soviet president. A bounded phase of the Soviet breakup, not the whole dissolution process or the duration of the post-Soviet transition.",
      "sources": [
        "geo91_coup",
        "geo91_soviet"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "bosnia92",
      "category": "geo",
      "label": "Bosnia war → Dayton signing",
      "start": "1992-04-01",
      "end": "1995-12-14",
      "precision": "start month; peace-agreement milestone",
      "note": "April 1992 conflict onset is displayed from the first of the month. Ends at the Paris signing of the Dayton agreement, following its November initialling; peace implementation and regional instability continued.",
      "sources": [
        "geo92_bosnia",
        "geo95_dayton"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "hikes94",
      "category": "fed",
      "label": "1994–95 rate hikes",
      "start": "1994-02-04",
      "end": "1995-02-01",
      "precision": "first to last hike decisions",
      "note": "First to last tightening decision in this cycle; the subsequent hold is outside the band. February 1994 also marked the first immediate public announcement of this tightening phase.",
      "sources": [
        "fed_omo_1990_2002",
        "fed94_announcement"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "mexico94",
      "category": "geo",
      "label": "Mexico peso crisis → IMF package",
      "start": "1994-12-20",
      "end": "1995-02-01",
      "precision": "devaluation to assistance-approval milestone",
      "note": "Peso devaluation through IMF approval of the stand-by arrangement. This initial policy-response window excludes later currency pressure, recession and banking restructuring.",
      "sources": [
        "geo94_mexico",
        "geo95_mexico_imf"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "cuts95",
      "category": "fed",
      "label": "1995–96 rate cuts",
      "start": "1995-07-06",
      "end": "1996-01-31",
      "precision": "first to last target reductions",
      "note": "Three target reductions following the 1994–95 tightening cycle. The interval includes pauses between cuts and excludes the subsequent hold.",
      "sources": [
        "fed_omo_1990_2002"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "shutdown95a",
      "category": "us",
      "label": "November 1995 shutdown",
      "start": "1995-11-14",
      "end": "1995-11-19",
      "precision": "archive's shutdown dates",
      "note": "First shutdown in the 1995–96 budget confrontation, using the Presidential Library's stated dates. Separate from the longer December–January shutdown; the intervening funded period is excluded.",
      "sources": [
        "shutdown95_archive"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "shutdown95b",
      "category": "us",
      "label": "1995–96 shutdown",
      "start": "1995-12-16",
      "end": "1996-01-06",
      "precision": "archive's shutdown dates",
      "note": "Second shutdown in the 1995–96 budget confrontation. The January 6 funding-resolution endpoint does not imply all offices physically reopened that Saturday or that the broader budget dispute ended.",
      "sources": [
        "shutdown95_archive"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "asia97",
      "category": "geo",
      "label": "Asian financial crisis · 1997–98",
      "start": "1997-07-02",
      "end": "1998-12-31",
      "precision": "dated start; editorial year-end boundary",
      "note": "Thai baht flotation anchors the regional crisis. December 1998 year-end is an explicit display convention for the 1997–98 phase, not a dated resolution of every country's crisis or its spillovers.",
      "sources": [
        "geo97_asia"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ltcm98",
      "category": "us",
      "label": "LTCM losses → private rescue",
      "start": "1998-08-01",
      "end": "1998-09-23",
      "precision": "loss month to recapitalization agreement",
      "note": "August is the documented major-loss month, displayed from its first day, not an exact onset date. Ends at the September 23 private recapitalization agreement facilitated by the New York Fed. Portfolio unwinding and wider stress continued; no Fed funds financed this rescue.",
      "sources": [
        "ltcm98_history",
        "ltcm98_testimony"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "cuts98",
      "category": "fed",
      "label": "1998 financial-stress easing",
      "start": "1998-09-29",
      "end": "1998-11-17",
      "precision": "first to last cut announcements",
      "note": "Three cuts, including the intermeeting October 15 action, during global financial stress. A monetary-policy response window, distinct from LTCM's recapitalization and from the duration of market stress.",
      "sources": [
        "fed_omo_1990_2002",
        "fed98_statements"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "kosovo99",
      "category": "geo",
      "label": "Kosovo · NATO air campaign",
      "start": "1999-03-24",
      "end": "1999-06-10",
      "precision": "operation start and suspension dates",
      "note": "Operation Allied Force through its suspension. The Kosovo conflict began earlier; the subsequent international security presence and political disputes extend beyond this air-campaign band.",
      "sources": [
        "geo99_kosovo"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "hikes99",
      "category": "fed",
      "label": "1999–2000 rate hikes",
      "start": "1999-06-30",
      "end": "2000-05-16",
      "precision": "first to last target increases",
      "note": "First to last hike in this tightening cycle. The endpoint excludes the subsequent period holding the target at 6.5%.",
      "sources": [
        "fed_omo_1990_2002"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "cuts01",
      "category": "fed",
      "label": "2001–03 rate cuts",
      "start": "2001-01-03",
      "end": "2003-06-25",
      "precision": "first to last cut announcements",
      "note": "January 2001's intermeeting cut through the June 2003 reduction to 1%. Includes long pauses and easing after the 2001 recession; it is not a continuous recession band.",
      "sources": [
        "fed01_cut",
        "fed03_cut"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "recession01",
      "category": "us",
      "label": "2001 US recession",
      "start": "2001-03-01",
      "end": "2001-11-30",
      "precision": "monthly NBER peak-to-trough dating",
      "note": "March peak to November trough, expanded to month edges for display. NBER counts the peak month as the last expansion month; this retrospective band includes that peak month and does not date the separate stock-market decline.",
      "sources": [
        "nber_historical_cycles",
        "nber_month_convention"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "afghan01",
      "category": "geo",
      "label": "9/11 → Afghan interim authority",
      "start": "2001-09-11",
      "end": "2001-12-22",
      "precision": "selected attack-to-political-transition phase",
      "note": "September 11 attacks, the October 7 start of US-led strikes in Afghanistan, and formation of the Afghan interim authority. The endpoint marks an initial political transition, not the end of the Afghanistan war.",
      "sources": [
        "geo01_afghan_start",
        "geo01_afghan_interim"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "sars02",
      "category": "geo",
      "label": "SARS · initial global outbreak",
      "start": "2002-11-16",
      "end": "2003-07-05",
      "precision": "retrospective first case to WHO containment milestone",
      "note": "First known case, identified retrospectively, through WHO's removal of the last area with recent local transmission. This is the initial outbreak, not a contemporaneously known November 2002 signal or the end of all later SARS cases.",
      "sources": [
        "geo02_sars_start",
        "geo03_sars_end"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "iraq03",
      "category": "geo",
      "label": "Iraq invasion → 2011 US withdrawal",
      "start": "2003-03-20",
      "end": "2011-12-18",
      "precision": "military intervention and withdrawal milestones",
      "note": "US-led invasion through departure of the last US withdrawal convoy in 2011. Intensity varied; the endpoint does not imply the end of Iraqi violence or exclude later US military operations.",
      "sources": [
        "geo03_iraq"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "hikes04",
      "category": "fed",
      "label": "2004–06 rate hikes",
      "start": "2004-06-30",
      "end": "2006-06-29",
      "precision": "first to last hike announcements",
      "note": "First to last hike in the cycle that lifted the target from 1% to 5.25%. Ends at the final hike announcement, not the end of the subsequent high-rate hold.",
      "sources": [
        "fed04_hike",
        "fed06_hike"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "lebanon06",
      "category": "geo",
      "label": "Israel–Hezbollah · 2006 war",
      "start": "2006-07-12",
      "end": "2006-08-14",
      "precision": "outbreak to cessation-of-hostilities boundary",
      "note": "July 12 cross-border attack and ensuing war through the cessation of hostilities under Security Council resolution 1701. Withdrawal, reconstruction and subsequent tensions are outside this band.",
      "sources": [
        "geo06_lebanon"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "cuts07",
      "category": "fed",
      "label": "2007–08 cuts → near-zero rates",
      "start": "2007-09-18",
      "end": "2008-12-16",
      "precision": "first to last funds-rate cut announcements",
      "note": "First federal funds target cut in the crisis cycle through adoption of the 0–0.25% range. Earlier liquidity and discount-window actions are outside this rates band; near-zero rates continued afterward.",
      "sources": [
        "fed07_cut",
        "fed08_zero"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "recession07",
      "category": "us",
      "label": "Great Recession · US",
      "start": "2007-12-01",
      "end": "2009-06-30",
      "precision": "monthly NBER peak-to-trough dating",
      "note": "December 2007 peak to June 2009 trough, expanded to month edges for display. NBER counts the peak month as the last expansion month. Retrospective activity dating; financial distress and labor-market weakness extended beyond the trough.",
      "sources": [
        "nber_historical_cycles",
        "nber_month_convention"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "crisis08",
      "category": "us",
      "label": "Bear Stearns → bank stress tests",
      "start": "2008-03-14",
      "end": "2009-05-07",
      "precision": "selected financial-crisis response milestones",
      "note": "Bear Stearns emergency-financing approval through publication of SCAP results for 19 large bank holding companies. These institutional response milestones delimit a selected crisis phase; they do not measure the onset or end of all financial stress and were not selected from market returns.",
      "sources": [
        "bear08_support",
        "scap09_results"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "georgia08",
      "category": "geo",
      "label": "Russia–Georgia war → ceasefire plan",
      "start": "2008-08-07",
      "end": "2008-08-12",
      "precision": "selected outbreak-to-agreement phase",
      "note": "War onset, as dated by the EU, through the EU-mediated six-point agreement. The agreement is a diplomatic endpoint; withdrawals, violations and unresolved territorial conflicts continued afterward.",
      "sources": [
        "geo08_georgia"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "qe1",
      "category": "fed",
      "label": "QE1 · initial asset purchases",
      "start": "2008-11-25",
      "end": "2010-03-31",
      "precision": "announcement to completion month-end",
      "note": "Initial agency debt and MBS purchase announcement, including the March 2009 expansion, through the March 2010 purchase-completion month. Operations began in December 2008; March 31 is a display month-end, not the final settlement date.",
      "sources": [
        "fed_qe1_timeline",
        "fed_qe1_completion"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "h1n1_09",
      "category": "geo",
      "label": "H1N1 · WHO emergency",
      "start": "2009-04-25",
      "end": "2010-08-10",
      "precision": "official emergency declaration dates",
      "note": "WHO public-health emergency of international concern through its termination. These boundaries differ from the June 2009 pandemic declaration; H1N1 continued to circulate after the emergency ended.",
      "sources": [
        "geo09_h1n1"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "euro-debt",
      "category": "geo",
      "label": "Euro debt crisis · SMP → OMT",
      "start": "2010-05-10",
      "end": "2012-09-06",
      "precision": "selected ECB response phase",
      "note": "Euro-area sovereign stress, anchored to the ECB's SMP launch and OMT decision. The wider debt crisis began earlier and continued beyond this selected phase.",
      "sources": [
        "euro"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "qe2",
      "category": "fed",
      "label": "QE2",
      "start": "2010-11-03",
      "end": "2011-06-30",
      "precision": "announcement to completion month-end",
      "note": "Second large-scale Treasury purchase program. Announcement date to scheduled end of the second quarter of 2011.",
      "sources": [
        "fed_timeline"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "arab-spring",
      "category": "geo",
      "label": "Arab Spring · early wave",
      "start": "2010-12-17",
      "end": "2011-12-31",
      "precision": "approximate phase",
      "note": "Start: Tunisian uprising trigger. End: an editorial year-end boundary for the initial 2010–11 wave, not the end of regional unrest.",
      "sources": [
        "arab_start",
        "arab"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "syria",
      "category": "geo",
      "label": "Syria · uprising to Assad's fall",
      "start": "2011-03-01",
      "end": "2024-12-08",
      "precision": "start month; end milestone",
      "note": "March 2011 is month-level dating for the uprising. Ends at Assad's fall, not a claim that the Syrian conflict ended.",
      "sources": [
        "syria_start",
        "syria_end"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "fukushima",
      "category": "geo",
      "label": "Japan quake / Fukushima response",
      "start": "2011-03-11",
      "end": "2011-12-16",
      "precision": "selected emergency-response phase",
      "note": "Earthquake and nuclear accident through the reported cold-shutdown-state milestone. Not the duration of the earthquake or the end of cleanup, displacement or nuclear risk.",
      "sources": [
        "fukushima"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "libya11",
      "category": "geo",
      "label": "Libya · NATO command phase",
      "start": "2011-03-31",
      "end": "2011-10-31",
      "precision": "operation milestones",
      "note": "NATO sole command through the end of Operation Unified Protector. Earlier fighting and later Libyan instability are outside this band.",
      "sources": [
        "libya"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "debt11",
      "category": "us",
      "label": "2011 debt-ceiling standoff",
      "start": "2011-05-16",
      "end": "2011-08-02",
      "precision": "official fiscal milestones",
      "note": "Debt limit reached through the Budget Control Act signing. The later sovereign downgrade and market aftermath lie outside this band.",
      "sources": [
        "debt11a",
        "debt11b"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "twist",
      "category": "fed",
      "label": "Operation Twist",
      "start": "2011-09-21",
      "end": "2012-12-31",
      "precision": "announcement to completion month-end",
      "note": "Maturity-extension program, including its 2012 extension. It changed portfolio duration rather than constituting the same mechanism as net QE purchases.",
      "sources": [
        "fed_timeline"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "qe3",
      "category": "fed",
      "label": "QE3",
      "start": "2012-09-13",
      "end": "2014-10-31",
      "precision": "announcement to completion month-end",
      "note": "Third asset-purchase program, including its taper. Purchases ended in October 2014; reinvestment continued.",
      "sources": [
        "fed_timeline"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "taper",
      "category": "fed",
      "label": "Taper debate → decision",
      "start": "2013-05-22",
      "end": "2013-12-18",
      "precision": "communication milestones",
      "note": "Bernanke's taper discussion to the announced purchase slowdown. This is a communication window, not a return-defined tantrum duration.",
      "sources": [
        "fed_timeline"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "shutdown13",
      "category": "us",
      "label": "2013 shutdown / fiscal standoff",
      "start": "2013-10-01",
      "end": "2013-10-17",
      "precision": "shutdown to reopening boundary",
      "note": "Sixteen-day federal shutdown through the October 17 reopening boundary, overlapping debt-limit brinkmanship. Not a recession designation.",
      "sources": [
        "shutdown13",
        "debt23"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "crimea",
      "category": "geo",
      "label": "Crimea / Donbas → Minsk II",
      "start": "2014-02-01",
      "end": "2015-02-12",
      "precision": "approximate start month",
      "note": "February–March 2014 intervention through the Minsk II agreement. This selected escalation phase does not imply peace after February 2015.",
      "sources": [
        "nato",
        "minsk"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "hikes15",
      "category": "fed",
      "label": "2015–18 rate hikes",
      "start": "2015-12-16",
      "end": "2018-12-19",
      "precision": "first to last hike announcements",
      "note": "First to last hike in this cycle. The endpoint is not the end of restrictive policy or the subsequent holding period.",
      "sources": [
        "fed15",
        "fed18"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "brexit",
      "category": "geo",
      "label": "Brexit · referendum → withdrawal",
      "start": "2016-06-23",
      "end": "2020-01-31",
      "precision": "political milestones",
      "note": "Referendum through formal EU withdrawal. Negotiations and uncertainty varied; the transition period and later trade frictions continued afterward.",
      "sources": [
        "brexit"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "qt1",
      "category": "fed",
      "label": "QT · 2017–19 runoff",
      "start": "2017-10-01",
      "end": "2019-08-01",
      "precision": "operational month boundaries",
      "note": "Runoff began in October 2017; the July 2019 decision ended the reduction in August. Boundaries use the first of those months.",
      "sources": [
        "fed_timeline",
        "fed19"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "china-rivalry",
      "category": "geo",
      "label": "US–China rivalry / tariff era",
      "start": "2018-07-06",
      "end": null,
      "precision": "selected proxy start; ongoing",
      "note": "The 2018 tariff implementation anchors a broad rivalry phase. Tensions predate it; the band includes trade truces and changing intensity.",
      "sources": [
        "china",
        "current"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "shutdown19",
      "category": "us",
      "label": "2018–19 shutdown",
      "start": "2018-12-22",
      "end": "2019-01-25",
      "precision": "official shutdown dates",
      "note": "Federal partial shutdown. This identifies a fiscal disruption, not a recession.",
      "sources": [
        "shutdown19"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "repo19",
      "category": "fed",
      "label": "Repo squeeze → reserve response",
      "start": "2019-09-16",
      "end": "2019-10-11",
      "precision": "stress onset to policy announcement",
      "note": "September funding squeeze through the reserve-management purchase announcement. Repo support continued; October 11 is a policy milestone, not a measured end to all stress.",
      "sources": [
        "repo19"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "covid-global",
      "category": "geo",
      "label": "COVID · WHO emergency",
      "start": "2020-01-30",
      "end": "2023-05-05",
      "precision": "official declaration dates",
      "note": "WHO international public-health emergency, not lockdown duration or the end of COVID itself. Included here as a global shock.",
      "sources": [
        "who_start",
        "who_end"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "recession20",
      "category": "us",
      "label": "COVID · US recession",
      "start": "2020-02-01",
      "end": "2020-04-30",
      "precision": "monthly NBER dating",
      "note": "NBER peak month February to trough month April, expanded to month edges for display. Retrospective dating announced in 2020–21, not a real-time daily signal.",
      "sources": [
        "nber"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "oil-war20",
      "category": "geo",
      "label": "OPEC+ rupture → April agreement",
      "start": "2020-03-06",
      "end": "2020-04-12",
      "precision": "negotiation milestones",
      "note": "Failed OPEC+ talks through the new output agreement during the Saudi–Russian oil-price confrontation. The pandemic demand collapse and later negative WTI price are distinct developments.",
      "sources": [
        "oil_start",
        "oil_end"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "zero20",
      "category": "fed",
      "label": "COVID · near-zero rates",
      "start": "2020-03-15",
      "end": "2022-03-16",
      "precision": "FOMC announcement boundaries",
      "note": "Emergency return to a 0–0.25% target range through the first subsequent hike announcement. This band represents rates, not the exact QE purchase window.",
      "sources": [
        "fed20",
        "fed22"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "inflation",
      "category": "us",
      "label": "Inflation surge → June 2022",
      "start": "2021-04-01",
      "end": "2022-06-30",
      "precision": "selected monthly phase",
      "note": "Selected acceleration phase: April 2021 headline CPI inflation was 4.2% year-on-year; June 2022 was 9.1%. Observation months, not release dates; inflation did not end here.",
      "sources": [
        "cpi21",
        "cpi22"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ukraine",
      "category": "geo",
      "label": "Russia–Ukraine · full-scale war",
      "start": "2022-02-24",
      "end": null,
      "precision": "dated start; ongoing",
      "note": "Full-scale invasion phase; the wider conflict began in 2014. Continuing in September 2026 reporting; intensity varies within the band.",
      "sources": [
        "ukraine_start",
        "ukraine_current"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "hikes22",
      "category": "fed",
      "label": "2022–23 rate hikes",
      "start": "2022-03-16",
      "end": "2023-07-26",
      "precision": "first to last hike announcements",
      "note": "First to last hike in the inflation tightening cycle; the subsequent high-rate hold is outside this band.",
      "sources": [
        "fed22",
        "fed23"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "qt2",
      "category": "fed",
      "label": "QT · 2022–25 runoff",
      "start": "2022-06-01",
      "end": "2025-12-01",
      "precision": "operational dates",
      "note": "Balance-sheet runoff start to its announced cessation date. The pace changed within this period.",
      "sources": [
        "qt22",
        "qt25"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "debt23",
      "category": "us",
      "label": "2023 debt-ceiling standoff",
      "start": "2023-01-19",
      "end": "2023-06-03",
      "precision": "official fiscal milestones",
      "note": "Extraordinary-measures period through enactment of the Fiscal Responsibility Act.",
      "sources": [
        "debt23"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "banks23",
      "category": "us",
      "label": "SVB → First Republic failures",
      "start": "2023-03-10",
      "end": "2023-05-01",
      "precision": "selected bank-failure phase",
      "note": "SVB failure through First Republic failure. A bounded acute episode; not a claim that all banking stress ended on May 1.",
      "sources": [
        "banks"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "hold23",
      "category": "fed",
      "label": "High-rate hold · 5.25–5.50%",
      "start": "2023-07-26",
      "end": "2024-09-18",
      "precision": "FOMC announcement boundaries",
      "note": "Final hike announcement through the first subsequent cut announcement. A high-rate holding phase, distinct from active hikes or quantitative tightening.",
      "sources": [
        "fed23",
        "fed24a"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "gaza",
      "category": "geo",
      "label": "Gaza war → Oct 2025 ceasefire",
      "start": "2023-10-07",
      "end": "2025-10-10",
      "precision": "selected conflict phase",
      "note": "October 2023 attacks and ensuing war through the October 2025 ceasefire. Includes intervening ceasefires; the endpoint is not a claim of lasting peace.",
      "sources": [
        "gaza_start",
        "gaza_end"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "redsea",
      "category": "geo",
      "label": "Red Sea shipping crisis",
      "start": "2023-11-19",
      "end": null,
      "precision": "dated proxy start; ongoing",
      "note": "Galaxy Leader hijacking anchors the shipping-risk period. Includes pauses and renewed attacks/blockades; this does not imply continuous attacks at the same intensity.",
      "sources": [
        "redsea_start",
        "redsea_current"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "cuts24",
      "category": "fed",
      "label": "2024 rate-cut phase",
      "start": "2024-09-18",
      "end": "2024-12-18",
      "precision": "first to last 2024 cut announcements",
      "note": "The September–December 2024 cuts only. This label does not imply that later cuts never occurred.",
      "sources": [
        "fed24a",
        "fed24b"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "tariffs25",
      "category": "us",
      "label": "2025 tariff escalation → truce",
      "start": "2025-04-02",
      "end": "2025-05-12",
      "precision": "policy announcement milestones",
      "note": "Reciprocal-tariff announcement through the Geneva US–China agreement announcement. A US policy shock with global effects; tariffs and uncertainty continued afterward.",
      "sources": [
        "tariffs25"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "iran25",
      "category": "geo",
      "label": "Israel–Iran · June 2025 war",
      "start": "2025-06-13",
      "end": "2025-06-24",
      "precision": "dated conflict phase",
      "note": "June strikes through the announced ceasefire. This is separate from the 2026 conflict.",
      "sources": [
        "iran25"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "shutdown25",
      "category": "us",
      "label": "2025 federal shutdown",
      "start": "2025-10-01",
      "end": "2025-11-12",
      "precision": "dated shutdown phase",
      "note": "Funding lapse through the signing of legislation ending the 43-day shutdown.",
      "sources": [
        "shutdown25a",
        "shutdown25b"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "iran26",
      "category": "geo",
      "label": "Iran war / Hormuz crisis",
      "start": "2026-02-28",
      "end": null,
      "precision": "dated start; ongoing",
      "note": "2026 conflict and shipping crisis, including ceasefires and renewed hostilities. Still unresolved in September 2026 reporting.",
      "sources": [
        "iran26",
        "current"
      ]
    }
  ]
}